* Pros and cons for all the likely — and even a few unlikely — Derby entrants.

* A look at the breeding of the major contenders, including a unique pedigree angle that tabbed Mine That Bird ($103.20) in 2009.

* A surprising answer as to what kind of preps produce the best Derby ROI.

* A variety of facts and figures, including one angle that has produced an ROI of 87% since 1992 and another that has a 62% ROI since ’92.

* Need more Simon Historical Investment Technique? You got it. The top plays from the method that produced Derby winner Super Saver in 2010 is in the Wagering Guide.

* A new Lexus 2013 ES… actually, that’s not true; sorry, I got carried away.

Go to http://www.brisnet.com/derby and look for “Derek Simon Kentucky Derby Betting Guide” under Brisnet Products to get your copy TODAY… or tomorrow (whichever is more convenient).

Win Factor Reports
02/25/12 Fair Grounds
02/26/12 Gulfstream Park

Pace Profile Reports
02/25/12 Fair Grounds (selected races)
02/26/12 Gulfstream Park (selected races)

Top Turn-Time Contenders
02/25/12 Various Racetracks

Win Factor Report

Oaklawn Park (02/20/12)

SATURDAY (2/4/12)

Pace Profile Report

SUNDAY (2/5/12)

Aqueduct (AQU) Win Factor Report
Golden Gate (GG) Win Factor Report
Santa Anita (SA) Win Factor Report

NHC XIII Mandatory Races (01/27/12)

Friday:

Aqueduct (01/20/12)

Saturday:

Aqueduct (01/21/12)
Fair Grounds (01/21/12)

WIN FACTOR REPORTS

Friday:

Aqueduct (01/20/12)
Dubai (01/20/12)

Saturday:

Aqueduct (01/21/12)
Dubai (01/21/12)
Fair Grounds (01/21/12)

REVISED WILLIAM L. SCOTT METHOD REPORTS

Friday:

Aqueduct (01/20/12)

Saturday:

Fair Grounds (01/21/12)

Tim Tebow

Let’s be honest: Part of the disdain for Tim Tebow is based on what he stands for. No, I’m not talking about his unabashed Christianity — although some have certainly taken issue with that (Bill Maher called Tebow a “douchebag” for having bible verses printed on his eye black) — I’m talking about his style of play and, related to that, the color of his skin.

I first became aware of this animosity through Facebook and various commentaries on other Web sites, but I didn’t realize the extent of the anger until I learned of Kordell Stewart’s rant on ESPN.

“Tim Tebow needs to play the game,” Stewart said on ESPN’s First Take, “and if he doesn’t play it well he will be criticized accordingly.

“Because I was that same guy fighting for that same position; had to play wide receiver — they considered that ‘slash’ because of it. That’s why I ran from it, because I know I’m a quarterback — but no one respected it. But, now, Tim Tebow, he gets a pass.”

When Skip Bayless, a longtime Tebow supporter, expressed surprise that Stewart wasn’t more sympathetic toward the young quarterback’s plight, the former Steeler revealed the depth of his feelings.

“If he only were in my shoes and having to deal with the things I had to deal with to get where I wanted to get to… it was hard.”

A similar sentiment was voiced by sports journalist Rob Parker on a different episode of the same show.

“The NFL is making an exception for Tebow which has created resentment that is grounded in the question of ‘How come black players with similar skills in the past were not granted the chance to play quarterback?’” Parker said.

More recently, there was this from political commentator Chauncey DeVega, following the first clash between the Tim Tebow-led Denver Broncos and the Tom Brady-guided New England Patriots:

“I am a Patriots fan. I loved watching Tebow get owned by Tom Brady. I also believe that Tebow is grossly overrated, and his popularity is a function of Christian Dominionist born again shtick and the ‘novelty’ of a white quarterback with a ‘black’ style of play,” DeVega wrote on his blog We Are Respectable Negroes.

“In many ways, Tebow is the Eminem of the NFL, with the latter being imminently more talented. Alternatively, we can suggest that Tebow is to black quarterbacks who play at HBCU’s as white girls who are ‘thick’ are to black women with the same physiques. One is ‘exotic’; the other is ‘ordinary’ and ‘typical.’”

OK, I get it… and some of the bitterness is legitimate (if ultimately misplaced). Certainly, old-timers like Marlin Briscoe, Joe Gilliam, Vince Evans and particularly Warren Moon were greatly hurt by racial stereotyping. But there are two key aspects that are missed in the contemporary race-based backlash against Tim Tebow:

1) Tebow has started just 14 regular-season games.
2) The Broncos have a winning record with Tebow under center.

Now, let’s consider the case of Kordell Stewart:

In 1997, despite completing just 53.6 percent of his passes and accumulating a passer rating of 75.2 (Tebow’s career rating is 75.1), Stewart led the Pittsburgh Steelers to an 11-5 record and a berth in the AFC Championship game.

In a 7-6 divisional playoff win over New England that year, Stewart completed 14 of 31 passes (45.2 percent) for 134 yards and one interception, good for a 44.3 quarterback rating.

In the AFC Championship, the then 25-year-old Stewart was 18-of-36 (50 percent) for 201 yards with three picks — that’s a QB rating of 41.6.

Flash forward to 2011 and 24-year-old Tim Tebow.

After guiding Denver to a 7-4 regular season record and the division title, Tebow played brilliantly in the first round of the playoffs, setting a playoff record for yards per attempt and yards per completion and recording a 125.6 QB rating in an upset win over Pittsburgh.

Against New England, however, it was ugly. Tebow was just 9-of-26 for 136 yards and earned a 52.7 passer rating… hardly All-Pro caliber, but still better than both of Stewart’s ratings in the ’97 playoffs.

Yet did anyone hear the same number of folks clamoring for Stewart’s head in 1997 that are clamoring for Tebow’s head today? Did John Elway openly question Stewart’s ability after the AFC Championship? Did analysts critique his every throw?

It should also be noted that Pittsburgh was a 7 ½-point favorite against the Patriots and a 2 ½-point underdog against the eventual Super Bowl champs (Denver) in ’97. In 2011, on the other hand, Tebow’s Broncos were an 8-point underdog against Pittsburgh and a 14-point underdog against New England… meaning the expectations were a lot greater for the Steelers 14 years ago than they were for the Broncos this year.

Even so, there was never any doubt as to who would start at quarterback for Pittsburgh in 1998.

The problem was that Stewart — and the team — regressed that year. Stewart threw 10 fewer TDs and one more interception and accumulated a truly dreadful 62.9 quarterback rating as the Steelers finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs.

Nonetheless, Stewart continued to start until a three-interception debacle against Seattle saw him lifted for Mike Tomczak in the third game of 1999. Moreover, Stewart eventually won his job back and was named the Pittsburgh’s MVP after a 13-3 season in 2001.

So, for Stewart to say that he didn’t get a fair shake seems to be a little self-serving.

Were there questions, even doubts, about his ability to lead a conventional NFL offense? Absolutely. Are there questions, even doubts, about the ability of Tim Tebow to lead a conventional NFL offense? Absolutely… every day.

The bigger question is will Tebow get 87 NFL starts — as Stewart did — to answer the question.

WIN FACTOR REPORT(S)

Aqueduct (01/13/12)

PACE PROFILE REPORT(S)

Aqueduct (01/13/12)

]]> http://www.valuewagering.com/2012/01/13/free-weekend-handicapping-reports-2/feed/ 0 http://www.valuewagering.com/2012/01/07/weekend-handicapping-reports/ http://www.valuewagering.com/2012/01/07/weekend-handicapping-reports/#comments Sat, 07 Jan 2012 17:09:17 +0000 admin http://www.valuewagering.com/?p=151 SATURDAY

Aqueduct (01/07/12)
Gulfstream Park (01/07/12)
*Santa Anita Park (01/07/12)

*Includes Pace Profile Reports for races 3 & 8.

Meydan Racecourse (01/06/12)